Wednesday, September 24, 2008

If BYU had the SEC schedules this year, how would they fair?

Like many others involved in college football I am tired of the brainwashed BCS world who only look at the surface of teams not in the BCS. They give too much credit to teams just because they are in the conferences like the SEC. Now, I will agree with anyone who says the SEC is strong, but are they as good as we give them credit? Probably not. Their faults are overlooked because after all, it's the SEC. Come on everyone knows they are the fastest, the most physical and talented athletes in college football. Even if they aren't, they still are. Even if they are all that ESPN says they are, how do we really know!? They only play themselves, even the non-conference games are rarely out of the south. The SEC as a whole has 8 games outside of the south or face teams less than 200 miles away (4 away games, .66 per team outside the south), and plays more than 1.5 games per team that are either IAA or sunbelt conferences this year. All but LSU, Miss St., and Vanderbilt have 7 home games which have 8, 6, and 6 respectively.
I want to predict how BYU would do in each of the teams from the SEC schedule this year, then we'll 'truly' see how good they are since they're own schedule is never good enough. Obviously this is all guess work because there is no real way to know, so I'll give a best and worst scenario based off talent, schedule and this years statistics.

Italics are added to show opponents that reside outside the south.
SEC East:
Vanderbilt schedule: @ Miami (OH), South Carolina, Rice, @ Ole Miss, Auburn, @ Miss State, Georgia, Duke, Florida, @ Kentucky, Tennessee, @ Wake Forest. BYU might slip by Georgia but probably not. Auburn, come on have you seen their offense. Worst case scenario with loses at Georgia and agaisnt Florida and maybe at Wake Forest but I doubt it. Worst 9-3, Best 11-1 I dont think they would definately loose to Georgia and Florida, especially with playing Florida at home who lost to Ole Miss in the swamp.

Georgia schedule: Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, @ South Carolina, @ Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, @ LSU, Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, Georgia Tech. I don't see BYU getting past Alabama and LSU on the road would be hard, but at Arizona State and Auburn I think they could do; these two teams turned out to be a bit of a disappointment so far. Worst 8-4 but they would have to lose to almost every quality team, Best 10-2 which last year was good enough for the title game. Of course they'd have to get through the SEC champ game.

Florida schedule: Hawaii, Miami, @ Tennessee, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky, Georgia, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel, @ Florida State. Not much to say about this schedule its one of the easier ones in the SEC. Georgia on the road and Vandy on the road might be hard but we'll see how they end up. Worst 10-2, Best 11-1.

Kentucky schedule: @ Louisville, Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, @ Florida, @ Miss State, Georgia, Vanderbilt, @Tennessee. I think BYU could take Georgia at home but not at Bama and at Florida might be hard but again they lost to Ole Miss at home. Worst 9-3, Best 11-1.

Tennessee schedule: @ UCLA, UAB, Florida, @ Auburn, Northern Illinois, Georgia, Miss State, @ Alabama, @ South Carolina, Wyoming, @ Vanderbilt, Kentucky. This schedule is a little harder with the tougher opponents on the road but again Auburn's offense? Absolute Worst 8-4 which means they'd have to lose to every tough team, Best 10-2.


South Carolina schedule: NC State, @ Vanderbilt, Georgia, Wofford, UAB, @ Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, @ Florida, @ Clemson. I think 7 of these games are gimmies, but Georgia, LSU, and at Vandy, Florida and Clemson would be tough but I think they can beat at least three of them. Worst8-4, Best 11-1

SEC West:
Alabama schedule: @ Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky, @ Arkansas, @ Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, @ Tennessee, Arkansas State, @ LSU, Miss State, Auburn. It would be hard to get past road games at Georgia and LSU, but it doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Worst 10-2, Best 11-1

LSU schedule: Appalachian State, North Texas, @ Auburn, Miss State, @ Florida, @ South Carolina, Georgia, Tulane, Alabama, Troy, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas. The easiest schedule yet. This is the best chance for an undefeated schedule in the SEC so far with 8 home games. Toughest games are at home against Bama and Georgia while at Florida could be a possible win for BYU since Florida has shown it weekness. Worst 10-2, Best 12-0.

Auburn schedule: Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Miss, @ Mississippi State, LSU, Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, @ Ole Miss, Tennessee-Martin, Georgia, @ Alabama. At Vandy, WV and Bama would be tough, with LSU and Georgia at home. I see 8 games BYU should defineately win an I dont see them losing the rest. Worst 9-3, Best 10-2.

Ole Miss schedule: Memphis, @ Wake Forest, Samford, Vanderbilt, @ Florida, South Carolina, @ Alabama, @ Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana-Monroe, @ LSU, Mississippi State. You heard me say it before. Worst 8-4, Best 10-2.

Arkansas schedule: Western Illinois, @ Louisiana-Monroe, Alabama, @ Texas, Florida, @ Auburn, @ Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tulsa (only 150 miles apart), @ South Carolina, @ Mississippi State, LSU. I don't think BYU could come out with a win on the road at Texas, they are impressive this year. Worst 8-4, Best 11-1.

Mississippi State schedule: @ Louisiana Tech, Southeastern Louisiana, Auburn, @ Georgia Tech, @ LSU, Vanderbilt, @ Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State, Kentucky, @ Alabama, Arkansas, @ Ole Miss. It's all been said. Worst 9-3, Best maybe 11-1.

At worst BYU would come out of the SEC east with 8.6, so 8 or 9 wins, and 9 out of the SEC west. At best BYU would come out of the SEC east with 10.6 and 10.8 out of the west, so 10 0r 11 wins. By this guess work it's safe to say BYU could possibly come out of the SEC this year with 9 to 10 wins. You think that would lead the team to a bowl better than the Vegas Bowl? Yeah!

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

The Call

Was it the last play or the second to last play that decided BYU's victory at Washington? Idiots like ESPN's Herbstreit who will never give a Mountain West team any credit and others like him only focused on the second to last play. We all know 'THE RULE' as stated in Rule 9, Section 2, Article 2c, of the NCAA book which states that a player can be penalized for an unsportsmanlike act for "throwing the ball high into the air", is a stupid rule. But come on don't punish the victor for a call made by someone who is simply doing their job. Would Herbstreit even care to mention it if the tables were turned, I doubt it! Farina, the official said "After scoring the touchdown, the player threw the ball into the air and we are required, by rule, to assess a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty," he continued by saying "It is a celebration rule that we are required to call. It was not a judgment call." 8 out of 10 officials wouldn't have made the call, but he saw it and didn't ignore the penalty.

BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall said of the game rules "They are to teach principles of class and integrity," he continued "Sometimes young men in the heat of the moment get overexuberant and the rules are in place to try to keep the game intact and hold on to what is most important in the game and that's the team element... it's unfortunate that a call is being the focus rather than two teams playing their heart out and going down to the [last play that did decide the game]."

Contrast this with what Willingham said. First he said "It's one that they almost have to call... It really should be a no-call, but it's one they have to call when they see it." Perhaps after the loss set in he later said "I think we all know that was not the right call ... , It's an opportunity to use discretion and it was not used. The proper judgment was not used. That was not an act of a young man taunting. That was not an unsportmanlike act at all and therefore it should have been viewed in its totality and not just in the letter of the law."

This brings me to my next point, does it say anywhere in the rule that the player must be taunting the opposing team while throwing the ball high into the air? No! It simply says the player must hand the ball to the official or leave it at the dead spot and that "throwing the ball high into the air" constitutes an unsportsman-like activity which is accompanied by a 15 yard penalty.

The one thing that sucks about this call is that it took away the opportunity for Washington to go for two especially with a good rushing QB like Jake Locker. They had to settle for the overtime, and with BYU's offense doing what they would with the Washinton defense, that's a scarey thought.


Now on to the last play which decided the game. Coach Mendenhall asked coach Tidwell if there was a chance they could go for it and he responded there's a chance, so coach Mendenhall say all rush. As you can see Jan Jorgensen while being held blocked the kick and BYU won the game.

p.s. Remember that fourth and 10 where Locker ran for thirteen yard, yeah guess what Ian Dulan was being held. Fourth and 20, hmm I don't think so. Game over.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Pre-season Top 25

Before the season officially begins it's always fun to name your top 25. I take somewhat of a unique approach to rank what I think are the top 25 programs in the country. I took in to account last seasons success, returning and up and coming players, coaching changes and a little bit of scheduling to determine team strength. I rank these 25 teams as they compare to each other, so although certain teams may not seem like top 10 or 15 programs, they are, according to my opinion and compared to the teams that surround them. I also took it upon myself to look into their schedules through the first 5 games of the season to determine their ranking and record after those initial games. I was surprised to find out how weak a lot of the so called 'big teams' non-conference schedules were when the mid-major conference's powers are continually battered for their weak schedules. So here we go let's talk rankings.

1. USC- The Trojans have a killer schedule this year both in and out of conference and should be very fun to watch. Their first couple non-conference games are at Virginia and against Ohio State, but they are fortunate to play both Oregon and Arizona State at home. I see them starting out 5-0 and retaining the #1 ranking.


2. Georgia- Unless your in SEC country you just gotta hate Georgia, everything from the cocky look on the coach's face to their stupid win over Hawaii in the Sugar bowl. But hey they're stacked on both sides of the ball and should do well this year. They open with back to back home games against Georgia State and Central Michigan, woo hoo! I see them surviving at South Carolina and against Bama, but I think they will fall at Arizona State. After five games they'll be 4-1 and ranked # 6.


3. Ohio State- The overrated Buckeyes have a killer schedule that include Youngstown State, Ohio, Troy, and Minnesota in their first five games. Not including USC, the only quality team they play in their first five games, the combined the win loss record of their other 4 opponents last years was 22-25. Putting all that aside they should still be a quality team but with a loss to USC early and a starting record of 4-1 they'll still manage somehow to ranked # 5 at this point.


4. Oklahoma- What can I say about Oklahoma they're going to be good and should end up in a BCS bowl again, maybe they'll even win a BCS bowl. They play a few quality teams in Cincy and TCU in their first five games but they should have no problem starting the season 5-0, moving them up to the # 2 ranking.


5. Florida- Florida will continue to have a great offense this year with Tebow and a great coach in Urban Meyer. With tough road wins at Tennessee and Arkansas they should start 5-0 moving up a couple notches to # 3.


6. Missouri- They're first five games are easily doable with opponents like Southeastern Missouri State, Buffalo and Nevada. I wouldn't look past Illinois or Nebraska, but the Tigers can start out 5-0 moving them to the # 4 team in the nation.


7. West Virginia- If they get a scare at all during they're first five games it will be at East Carolina. If they can get past ECU then Pat White can lead his team to a 5-0 start to begin the season. They'll move up to # 7 if they pull off the perfect start.


8. Clemson- There is a lot of crap talking about the ACC saying they are the trash of the BCS conference's this year but Clemson should be the class of the trash. They say Clemson always finds a way to loose games they shouldn't but I don't buy into theories like that. Their first 5 games are pathetic with two division I AA opponents, NC State and Maryland. If they can get past Bama at home they should have no problem starting out 5-0 and staying at # 8.


9. LSU- Wouldn't it be funny if Appalachian State pulled off another huge upset at the defending national champs house, life isn't that good though. LSU will lose to their only quality opponent in their first five games at Auburn making them 4-1 and only dropping to # 10 in the nation.


10. Texas- This is one of those teams I don't see as a top ten team but this is wear they need to fit in compared to who's around them. Texas is going to have kind of a tough year with a good 4 looses at least on the horizon due to their road opponents. They should survive their first five games ok with only one lose at Colorado. At 4-1 they'll drop to # 12 and then it will be all downhill from there.


11. Texas Tech- With two division I AA in their first five match ups and a combined record of 31-31 last year, this high powered offense should breeze through their first five games. They should be a contender for the Big 12 championship this year. After starting 5-0 they'll move up to # 9.


12. BYU- Got to represent the mid-majors. The cougars have dominated the MWC the last couple years and we all expect the same this year. With expectations so in cougar town coach Bronco Mendenhall is helping the cougars not to look past Northern Iowa who took a trip to the division I AA quarterfinals last year. The cougars first five of six to start the season are in the state of Utah. If they can get past Washington on the road and UCLA at home they should start out 5-0 and move up to # 11.


13. Kansas- Many expect Kansas to be as good this year as they were last year, if not better; and they have the schedule they didn't have last year to prove it. During their first five they should be fine though with only one lose to South Florida. A 4-1 record will drop them to # 14.


14. Auburn- I don't give Auburn as much love as everybody else does because they are overrated. I would love to see them prove me wrong but somehow they'll find a way to lose games. I predict them winning over LSU at home but losing to Tennessee at home. They should handle Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Miss, and Mississippi State fine. A 4-1 record drops them to # 16 in my nation.


15. Wisconsin- Another overrated Big Ten school. This is my first team to bite the big one and drop put of my top 25. I think they can handle Akron and Marshall, but they will probably lose at Fresno State, at Michigan and against Ohio State. With a 2-3 record they get a big fat NR after five games.


16. Arizona State- I like Arizona State I think they are on the up n' up in the Pac 10 and I have them beating the beloved Georgia at home, but losing at CAL the following week. A 4-1 record moves them up to # 13.



17. Tennessee- They look alright to me. I see them beating UCLA at the Rose Bowl, losing to Florida at home a beating Auburn on the road. 4-1 sounds pretty good and they'll likely move up to # 15.


18. Illinois- The fighting Illini have a pretty good first five schedule. With some stars still on the roster I can see them winning on the road at Penn State and Michigan. Their only first five lose will probably be the season opener at Mizzou. A 4-1 record them will move them up a notch to # 17.

19. Oregon- Opening the season with Washington and Utah State at home should be a done deal but loses at Purdue and against Boise State, thats right Boise State, will knock them out of the top 25. Sorry ducks 3-2 isn't good enough, NR.


20. Virginia Tech- I predict the Hokies to barely scrape by at East Carolina the toughest opponent of their first five. They better watch out for the Tar Heels though, they could very well beat VT as they host them at home this year. I also predict VT to fall at Nebraska as well. With two somewhat weak match ups 3-2 is not good enough, NR.


21. Penn State- The Nittany Lions will be ok, but aren't they always 'ok'. Loses to Oregon State and Illinois both at home brings them to a 3-2 record to start and a NR.


22. South Florida- I don't think they will start out like last year but one lose to Central Florida is close. An impressive win on their resume will be against Kansas and a 4-1 record will bring them up to # 18 in my land.


23. Fresno State- Only the second mid-major to show up in the top 25 to start the year. Fresno State has a fun schedule starting the year with Rutgers, Wisconsin and at UCLA. They're only lose should be in the Rose Bowl and a 4-1 start bring them to # 19.



24. Wake Forest- The demon deacons might be an iffy choice for the preseason poll but what the heck. With loses at Florida State and against Clemson the get knocked out anyway, 3-2 NR.


25. Pittsburgh-Pitt is the only team on this list that had a losing record last year, but this year looks promising, especially with the late season win over West Virginia last year. A fairly easy first five schedule may only yield one lose to South Florida. A pleasing 4-1 record brings them to # 20.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

My college football playoff system

I know it's not the hottest thing to talk about right now in the world of college football but I created a playoff system that I think would compliment the current BCS system while adding the much needed playoff. There are many coaches, university presidents and conference committee members that disagree with the playoff system. Among other concerns, it possibly takes money away from the 'Big Six' conferences and lengthens the season. While both are true, finding the true national champ and giving the fans the extra games they desire should make the change worth the wait. While it is the university’s priority for the student athletes to complete their degrees along with allowing them time to do so; a few extra games for those who make the playoffs shouldn't be a major concern. College basketball is much more time consuming than football could ever be. Another concern is the 30-something active bowls losing purpose and therefore money. If you think about though, the bowl games are already pointless. For the teams that qualify the season leads to nothing other than one more game. The purpose of the existing bowls is to allow the athletes and fans to enjoy one more game in a new place and against an opponent they wouldn't usually meet. Those same qualities can stay intact for bowl eligible teams while adding a playoff.

How it works: The playoff is similar to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, but there are only 8 seeds. To enter the playoff you must first of all be the champion of your conference and merit 9 wins. The conference champs of the BCS conferences are automatically seeded into the playoff (assuming that their conference champs will have at least 9 wins). The two other available seeds will be given to the best of the 5 other conferences with the 8th and 9th seeds playing for the 8th spot. This system makes for a 15 game season unless the 8 or 9 seeds go all the way, then its 16 games. Like the NCAA tourney the high seeds will be paired with the low seeds. The games will be played at the current BCS bowls, namely: Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange. Since the playoff is a 7 game system the bowl picked to host the national championship that year will have three games. The playoffs will generically look like this.

The national championship game will rotate through the current BCS bowls as it does now. The high seeds are always given the advantage with a steady bowl location, if they win of course, as shown above. The bowl that host the #1 seed will always have 3 games which includes the national championship, the bowl that host the #2 seed will have 2 games, and the other 2 bowls will have 1 game. After a full rotation (4 years) each bowl will have hosted 7 games, currently they host 5. With so many games available during the playoffs hopefully the interest level increases revenues making it possible for cheaper tickets and a wider range of audience.

Rankings are still very important with this playoff system as it will determine the seeding. Last year (2007) there were 9 conference champions that had at least 9 wins to qualify for the playoffs. The conference champions, their seeding, and rankings at the end of the regular season respectively, proceed as follows; Big 10- Ohio State #1 (1), SEC- LSU #2 (2), ACC- VT #3 (3), Big 12- Oklahoma #4 (4), PAC 10- USC #5 (7), Big East- WV #6 (9), WAC- Hawaii #7 (10), MWC- BYU #8 (17), CUSA- CFU #9 (NR). Last year’s playoff and national champion race might have looked like this.

I think this system would work great; the competition and possible upsets would be far more exciting than the current BCS bowls (excluding Boise State vs. Oklahoma in 2006 which was the most exciting game played in a BCS bowl). The key is to win your conference though. Many think Georgia was playing the best ball in the country at the end of the season and under this system they are completely left out and have to play in the cotton bowl or something. Well tough luck, to be a part of the playoffs you have to win your conference. I believe this system would make conference play much more competitive and exciting. Over time I also believe that the conferences would become much more equal in competition because of top recruits going to the mid-major conferences for a better shot at a national title due to ‘easier’ conference play.